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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

But this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent underperformers ascending collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still