War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a staggered election nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".